How does Titan Analytics determine trends?

This document explains the current math behind the trends in Titan Analytics.

Document 3007  ¦  Last updated:  10/03/2017 RR2

The Overall Trend section of Titan Analytics, found on the 1004MC and Trends step, uses linear regression to decide if a trend is Increasing, Stable, or Declining.  The results are based on the summaries in your 1004MC.

You might notice that your Titan Analytics graphs display the data a little differently than this section does.  That's because, unlike the Overall Trend, the graphs are calculated based on a monthly breakdown of your data.


Example

To illustrate, here's the Months of Housing Supply data for a given report:

To decide if the Overall Trend is Increasing or Declining, Titan Analytics creates 12 data points, one for each month.  The value in the Prior 7‑12 Months box is listed 6 times because it represents 6 months of data:

Month Supply
1 8.1
2 8.1
3 8.1
4 8.1
5 8.1
6 8.1
7 4.3
8 4.3
9 4.3
10 5.1
11 5.1
12 5.1

The line based on these points is clearly going down, so Titan Analytics marks the Declining checkbox.

You can configure how much the line needs to rise or fall to be considered Increasing or Declining by clicking  Trends and Calculations on the 1004MC and Trends screen.

However, if you look at the Monthly Housing Supply graph created by Titan Analytics for the same report, it tells a different story:

Looking at this graph, you might think the Housing Supply is Increasing.  It's based on a monthly breakdown of your data.  If your client is only looking at what's in your 1004MC, they might need you to explain the monthly data shown here.

A future update to Titan Analytics will use the monthly breakdown to determine trends.  This will provide the results you intuitively expect to see.  In the meantime, you can always change the Increasing, Declining, or Stable box once you're back in your report.

When a form only gives one part of the picture to your client, you may want to take advantage of the discrepancy to demonstrate your knowledge of the market!

In a future update, Titan Analytics will calculate Overall Trend data on a monthly basis, just like the graphs do.

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